dreaife的休憩小栈

Before I realized it, a month had passed. Lately I feel my trading win rate has been pretty high, so I’m going to do a thorough review.

My last big win was a short on 2/3, using some idle capital to run a high-leverage trade, which nearly doubled my principal. But I misjudged the target level for Ethereum’s move, and a good portion of those profits was lost as a result. Still, the overall return was positive, and it was at least some experience gained.

Then there’s the rebound and the subsequent chop in the market. It seems there hasn’t been much large-capital participation, which has made my judgments more accurate; even high-frequency trading accounts have multiplied several times. Looking ahead, even though injecting liquidity should lead to another up move, it’s not clear whether there will first be a supply-test rally followed by a retest before pushing higher, or how it will unfold. I can’t discern any signal yet and can only wait for the market to develop. In this respect, it’s quite trying. After all, from a mid- to long-term perspective I remain bullish, but in the short term the market is weak; a second test might still come. I’m also doing swing trades in the current range, and it’s really worrying when a big influx of money suddenly comes in to start the final leg. Regarding my mindset, it’s indeed exhausting.

From my current trading experience, although I’ve had several big ups and downs and have done a lot on-chain trading, I still get a bit flustered when facing a drop of more than around 30% in stablecoins. Therefore, I think I should summarize my trading methods and impose some trading rules to constrain myself, so that when facing big gains or losses again, the emotional volatility won’t distort my trading approach.

First, the trading method: I currently rely entirely on price candles plus volume to judge the market’s next move. In other words, I mainly do left-side trading; I look at the 4h and daily charts, and when the market is more volatile I will also check the 1h chart for judgment.

Regarding position sizing, about 80% of the capital is used for low-leverage trades to ride the big trend, 10% for higher-leverage, relatively higher-frequency trades (though the trading cycle is around a day), and the remainder is mainly on-chain speculative plays. After all, with small capital, these are still relatively high-risk trades (losses could reach around 10%).

Then the mindset: because I am still easily influenced by market swings, when a judgment is unclear I choose to sit out or wait for the candles to complete before deciding. As for the high-frequency trading portion, once there is stable cash flow, engaging in more gambling-like trades will not let emotions overly affect trading actions; in fact, it increases the success rate of trading.

All in all, I’m jotting down my recent trading reflections a little, also to prevent myself from slipping back into the old path of emotional trading in the future.