A month has passed before I knew it. My trading win rate has felt pretty high lately, so I wanted to do a proper review.
My most recent big win came from a short on February 3. I used some spare funds with high leverage and nearly doubled the principal. However, I misjudged the target level of Ethereum’s wick, which cost me a sizable portion of those profits. At least I still came out ahead and gained some experience from it.
Then there is the current choppy market following the rebound. Perhaps the lack of participation from major capital has made my calls considerably more accurate, and my high-frequency trading account has grown severalfold as well. Going forward, although another rally is bound to come once liquidity is injected, I still cannot tell whether the market will first run a supply test, make a second retest, and then push higher, or take some other path. All I can do is wait and see how the market develops. In that sense, the current situation is quite exhausting. I remain bullish from a medium- to long-term perspective, but the market is weak in the short term and may still undergo another retest. Meanwhile, I am swing trading within the current range, constantly worried that major capital could suddenly enter and officially kick off the final leg. Psychologically, it really is draining.
Based on my trading experience so far, although I have lived through several major rallies and crashes and have done quite a bit of on-chain trading, I still found myself somewhat stunned when my stablecoin balance fell by more than 30%. So I think I should summarize my trading approach and establish a few rules to keep myself disciplined. That way, when I face another major rally or crash, the resulting emotional swings will be less likely to distort my trading decisions.
First, regarding my trading approach, I currently judge the market’s next move almost entirely from candlestick charts and trading volume. In other words, I mainly engage in left-side trading. I mostly look at the 4-hour and daily charts, switching to the 1-hour chart when the market becomes more volatile.
As for position sizing, I currently allocate 80% of my principal to low-leverage trades targeting major trends. Another 10% goes toward relatively high-frequency, high-leverage trading, although each trade still tends to last around a day. The remainder is mainly used for speculating on meme coins on-chain. Since my capital is still limited, I am currently pursuing relatively high-risk trades, with potential losses reaching around 10%.
Next is mindset. Because I am still easily affected by market volatility, I choose to stay on the sidelines when the direction is unclear, or wait for a candlestick to close before making a judgment. As for the high-frequency portion, I have found that once I have a stable cash flow, making more gambling-like trades does not cause emotional fluctuations that significantly affect my execution. In fact, my success rate has improved considerably.
All in all, I wanted to record some of my recent trading takeaways, partly to prevent myself from slipping back into emotional trading in the future.
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